keo nha cai dua ra toi nayNews Highlights week 44

VIETNAM has seen increasing numbers of transpacific calls this year, but consultant Drewry thinks it will be a long time before keo nha cai dua ra toi nay Southeast Asian nation makes up for lost cargoes from China.
Despite some “robust growth” out of Southeast Asia, Drewry said keo nha cai dua ra toi nay eastbound transpacific container market will “very likely end keo nha cai dua ra toi nay year with lower volumes for keo nha cai dua ra toi nay first time since 2009”.
It said keo nha cai dua ra toi nay US-China trade dispute appears to have “sucked keo nha cai dua ra toi nay life out of keo nha cai dua ra toi nay trade, beyond which even keo nha cai dua ra toi nay very evident trade substitution could not hope to cover”.
Eastbound trade from Asia to keo nha cai dua ra toi nay US was flat after 10 months of keo nha cai dua ra toi nay year and given keo nha cai dua ra toi nay tough comparison to keo nha cai dua ra toi nay final two months of 2018, an annual deficit seems “inevitable”.
Drewry says keo nha cai dua ra toi nay shortfall is “entirely driven” by keo nha cai dua ra toi nay stagnation of volumes out of North Asia, particularly China, which saw volumes slide by 5% year-to-date, while growth out of Southeast Asia was a “buoyant” 27% to keo nha cai dua ra toi nay end of October.
“Clearly, a sizeable number of cargo owners have sought a safe haven from keo nha cai dua ra toi nay ongoing tariff uncertainty by relocating some of their production,” Drewry said.
It cites customs data that “heavily implies” that Vietnam is keo nha cai dua ra toi nay preferred choice so far, having seen a rise of 35% in its total exports to keo nha cai dua ra toi nay US in keo nha cai dua ra toi nay first nine months of keo nha cai dua ra toi nay year — more than any other trading partner.
Still, as impressive as Vietnam's numbers are, Drewry said “no one should jump to keo nha cai dua ra toi nay conclusion that keo nha cai dua ra toi nay country is a ready-made exporting replacement for China”.
Even after keo nha cai dua ra toi nay events of keo nha cai dua ra toi nay last two years, China's share of US total imports — in dollar value — was 18% after nine months of this year, down by around 3 percentage points on keo nha cai dua ra toi nay same period in 2018.
That still put China “far in excess of keo nha cai dua ra toi nay combined 7% share of keo nha cai dua ra toi nay supposed pretenders to its export crown Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and keo nha cai dua ra toi nay Philippines”.
keo nha cai dua ra toi nay sheer scale of China’s export machine means that it will retain its dominant position for keo nha cai dua ra toi nay foreseeable future, although it seems likely that it will “gradually diminish”.
Drewry said switching locations of production is not something done lightly and that cargo owners must weigh myriad factors, including local labour costs and skills, infrastructure, proximity to demand as well as political and legal stability, that all vary in importance depending on keo nha cai dua ra toi nay industry.

Adding to keo nha cai dua ra toi nay complexity, having identified a new location, there can be no guarantees that keo nha cai dua ra toi nay new production countries will not find themselves being targeted by future tariffs.
“It is a costly endeavour with no safety assurances,” Drewry said.
As of October, Drewry’s research shows that there were only 13 weekly transpacific services calling Vietnam, one more than keo nha cai dua ra toi nay same month last year but still “well below” keo nha cai dua ra toi nay 60 loops serving various Chinese ports.
As demand grows so “surely will keo nha cai dua ra toi nay number of services”, Drewry said, adding, however, that “current infrastructure constraints will limit keo nha cai dua ra toi nay possible expansion in keo nha cai dua ra toi nay short to medium term”.